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Monday, August 25, 2008

The Black Swan...



The other evening, Lynnda and I were watching "NUMBERS" on the tube and they referred to The Black Swan when they were discussing a random event as part of the investigation.
Sometimes when the character Charlie, the smart guy says something, I like to get
to Google and see if he is blowing smoke... so I did in this case, after he used the line

" we should rank our beliefs not by their plausibility,
but by the harm they may cause"


I thought that this was really an interesting line, and after a little searching, I found it came from the book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb.

It still seems like an interesting line as I think through the many situations we find ourselves in on a daily basis. I know that there are many times in a day that I think I know something
and it turns out that I really knew only a part of "something".
As I take actions, I find myself more and more hoping that I know the important facts,
not the interesting ones that I may have picked up on.
In many business, friendship and family situations it would be interesting to rank what we believe
by the harm they are going to do if we act on them, rather than
whether we are right.

Sometimes even the tube programs are more real than we give them credit for. After spending some time researching Nassim Taleb, I have had to add to my reading list.

The picture above (taken by Lynnda) is of a flower called the Datura. It usually blooms in the evening and can be dazzling
but it is also deadly... I think.
It is a white flower, until you look at the rim... which is not!

The Lily is called 'Star Gazer'. There are several in bloom this week around the property... we got the seeds from John and Lucille Stuart last fall. If you want to spread some beauty, ask for
some seeds to sow...

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Grad. Saint Mary's University, 1975, got into the medical device business initially in sales, then various management positions up to president, all in Medical Devices. I prefer therapy products over diagnostic, but they are all fun, and in a way have defined my life. I have now evolved, with help from my 35 year partner Lynnda with whom I now share every hour. I am into staying healthy, photography, kayaking, bicycling, gardening and two books a week. I wish I had gotten to this stage earlier!