So what is the 2016 election really all about?
So what is the 2016 election really all about?
As usual
there are different things for different folks… from being a historic GOP or
Dem full ballot voter; to those checking all the issues that impact them
personally; and finding a candidate or ballot issue that matches each, as
closely as is possible. This probably doesn’t give anyone satisfaction, since
democracy is not that granular, therefore individual needs cannot be assuredly
satisfied with a single vote.
Democracy is not many of the things we believe it to be. As
an example, it is not a “majority rules” form of government… except in 22
countries of the world who require all eligible voters (usually based on age)
that are listed here http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/22-countries-voting-mandatory/
… In effect, the rest of the countries are being ‘ruled’ by the leadership of
the winning political party that received the majority of the votes of those
who did vote… Usually much less than 80%.
An example of
non-democratic voting processes, is the USA. In 2012 just 57.5% of eligible
American voters actually cast a ballot. In 2000 only 54.2% voted in the
election that ultimately put the USA into a war in 2001 that is (fifteen years
later, it is still not over). Interestingly, the outcome of that election, was
in effect, decided by only the nine members (5 – 4) of the Supreme Court of the
USA (SCOTUS) that stayed a Florida State Supreme court decision of 4 – 3 and
ultimately elected George W. Bush president. All of which means that a change
of around 1,500 votes overcame the majority of the votes in the country based
on the arcane Electoral College system established by the US Constitution Articles
and its 12th Amendment. Hardly a democracy by the definition… but
here I digress!
So, if one is not choosing to vote based on specific line
item issues… what is a reasonable way to consider the election of 2016. It is
relatively simple, in my opinion to see the number one issue on the minds of
Americans… not war, not healthcare, not the deficit… it is more likely the
issue of “government not working” at the federal level. Without
attaching blame, let’s look at the mechanics of the “government not working” issue,
and the resulting legislative acrimony.
To start, it is important to understand the structure of the
US Government at the federal level. There is a separation of power between the
President of the USA, the Congress and the Supreme Court of the USA. These
three branches of government have different responsibilities that allow
government to work (Congress) and to manage disagreements/interpret the US
Constitution (Supreme Court of the USA, (SCOTUS))
.
The President has certain responsibilities under the
constitution. S/he is primarily responsible for any international agreements,
policies and non-declared wars (the type of which most USA military activity in
the 21st Century, have been). The President is also the “leader” of
the administration of the country within the boundaries and laws established by
the US Constitution and Congress. S/he is also the morale leader in times of
trouble, and celebration.
The ‘framers of the Constitution
of the USA’ established the US Congress with its two houses… one, the Senate is
made up of two Senators from each state (50 x 2 = 100, today). With an age
requirement (30 years old), and six year terms (a third is replaced every two
years). The Senate was established to take the edge off the House of
Representatives (which is based on population dispersion). The Senate is
perhaps intended to be the wiser, more sedate, less tumultuous governing body
in congress. Because of that, it was also chosen to give the President ‘advice’
relative to international wars; the nomination of Federal Judges; and leaders
of Federal Agencies. In these situations, they are also required to give ‘consent’
to the ‘major’ nominations like Supreme Court Nominees, Ambassadors and Cabinet
Members.
The House of Representatives, on the other hand, is based on
each state’s population density percentage of the national population (there
are 435 members of the house… eg: 27 are from the populous New York State and
only 8 from Wisconsin a much lower density population state); the members serve
only two-year terms (however there are no limits to the number of terms a
Representative can serve).
This makes the House more volatile and prone to
swings in policy based on the happenings of the day. Things like unemployment,
healthcare, education and other personal issues, often cause significant swings
in the politics of this legislative body. The wisdom of the Senate which must
pass each of the House of Representatives’ legislative recommendations, prior
to it going to the President, for promulgation, was seen by the framers of the
constitution as having a ‘calming’ effect.
The President can refuse to sign into legislation (veto)
policies to which s/he disagrees. The Congress can over-ride a veto with a
two-thirds majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
President Obama’s vetoes, for example have been overturned only once in eight
years. So the ‘veto’ is a big hammer that the President can swing on the
Congress.
The foregoing is an overly-simplified version of what
happens in the legislative process of the USA. It is however critical to
understanding why government is not working. If the leadership of either the
Senate or the House of Representatives (or both), is in disagreement with the
President for political, economic or other reason, they have the ability to
hold up any, and/or all new legislation the President wants to pass*. This is
critical in the 2016 Presidential election, simply because promises made by a Presidential
candidate may not necessarily be passed into legislation, if the leadership of
the House and Senate cannot, or will not agree to it.
So in my opinion, there is only one issue in 2016 Federal
Election… when a President is elected on November 8th, 2016, will
s/he be able to accomplish the goals to which they aspire?
It is the structure of the government that may give us the
answer, if the past 20-year-history can lead us to better judgement, in the
future. The President of the USA, for all the apparent power s/he may seem to have,
cannot move the country in a significant way, without having agreement with the
Congress, and in many ways, the Supreme Court.
The twenty-year-trend has been toward polarization between
the President and Congress, so legislation has been very slow to pass. Yet,
clearly there are significant domestic issues that need to be addressed. Based
on structure, it is my opinion that the only way to deal with the needs of the
country (infrastructure, healthcare, domestic security, social security,
education) is to elect a President who can manage the relationship with
congress on a win/win basis. There is a secondary issue that ‘might’ help… that
being, to elect a President and Congress (House and Senate) from the same party
in order to get legislation flowing. Although absent managing the relationship
with Congress, even same party officials often disagree on issues (Obama’s
first term for example).
Primarily the election of a President should be based (again
in my opinion):
1) on electing a person who has
demonstrated the ability to understand and work with all branches of the
federal government;
2) it is critical for the incumbent
to also understand, and be capable of working with the military, Governors of
State legislatures, municipal leaders and leaders of other countries
3) on understanding that the USA is a daunting
leadership quagmire, one that is very different from being a business or
institution
4) knowing the gravitas of also
carrying the mantel of decisions that perhaps could impact the globe…
pollution, power, human migration and nuclear proliferation to mention a few.
The main crux of this note is that it is important to vote…
but also to understand what is in the balance of our votes… and it will be the
union of many votes that gets our Legislative Bodies to work with the
Leadership through rightful and thoughtful use of our obligation.
Notes: * (an exception to this is the budget of the USA:
there is legislation in place that states that if the new budget request from
the President in any one year is not passed by a pre-determined date, the
budget of the prior year is repeated).
This is an interesting website: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016
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